I thought it would be interesting to look back to 2010 to the last midterm election here in JeffCo. That was a big year for national and local Republicans, as this election looks to be, so perhaps it will provide some clues for 2014. After we get this year’s results, we can compare to 2010 to see how things have changed. About 65,000 people showed up to vote in Jefferson County in 2010. I will not focus on the House races, since the districts have changed since 2010.
This was a quite different race. Incumbent Democrat Ryan McKenna spent only $200,000, compared to $300 by his opponent, Greg Zotta (it’s like the Arnold Prop S campaign). But McKenna only won by 2,600 votes out of 52,000 cast in this race.
GOP candidate Ken Waller won by 1,5oo votes to become the first county executive. He beat Democrat Randy Holman and Libertarian Dan McCarthy.
County Council District 1
In the first round of a race that is being run again as a rematch, Republican Don Bickowski beat Danny Tuggle by 1,300 votes.
County Council District 3
Republican Bob Boyer, who is running for re-election this year, won this race over current Arnold city councilman and Democrat Phil Amato by 1,000 votes.
Other Council Races
The Republican candidates in districts 5 and 7, neither of whom are running for re-election, won by 350 and 1,600 votes, respectively.
Recorder of Deeds
GOP challenger Debbie Dunnegan knocked off incumbent Marlene Castle, who was recorder since 1987, by 6,700 votes.
A number of elected officials who face challengers this year did not have opponents in 201o. They include:
- County Clerk Wes Wagner
- Auditor Dorothy Stafford
- Collector Beth Mahn
- Circuit Clerk Howard Wagner, who is retiring this year, was unchallenged.
- Seven judges, six of them Democrats, were all unopposed. Four judges (three Dems) are unopposed this time around.
A Little Prediction
In 2012, three county races (excluding sheriff) were all decided by 4,000 votes or less, with one Republican (Steve Farmer) unseating an incumbent Democrat (Bruce King for Public Administrator) who had held the job since 1999. To continue the trend started by Dunnegan and furthered by Farmer, I think that one (maybe two) county offices will flip to the Republicans this election (along with the party keeping the county executive and recorder offices). The best bets, I think, are the county collector and circuit clerk races, with challengers Leslie Hanson and Mike Reuter, respectively. But we will see.