Some Post-Election Notes

9 Nov

It was a clean sweep in JeffCo for the Republicans, as they won every office in the county, and received majorities here in every statewide race. The one that most surprises me, I’d say, is sheriff. I figured that Democrat candidate Steve Meinberg’s experience as Glenn Boyer’s right-hand man would overcome the GOP tide, since Boyer seems to be fairly popular, but GOP candidate Dave Marshak won with a big 58% of the vote.

Donald Trump received 64.5% of the JeffCo vote, with almost 69,000 votes out of 107,000. By comparison, here are the totals of the last two presidential winners of our county:

2012: Mitt Romney: 55%, 54,000 votes out of 97,700

2008: Barack Obama, 50.5%, 53,000 votes out of 105,700

As you see, Trump blew them out big league. For another comparison, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson got 3,966 votes here this year, versus 1,715 in 2012, getting more than double the votes this time.

Here’s a table comparing Trump and statewide GOP candidates’ vote percentages in JeffCo versus statewide:

gop-2016-nov-percents

As you see, Trump’s statewide numbers were in line with some of the other candidates (Josh Hawley even got more total votes than Trump). But in JeffCo, Trump far exceeded the other GOP statewide candidates. So this former rep, who was defeated in 2014, was partially right:

“There’s ticket splitters galore this year,” said former state Rep. Michael Frame, who used to represent part of Jefferson County. “I have heard the Trump-Koster thing a million times over. Folks are talking about that quite a bit in the diners, in the Hardee’s, at the McDonald’s.”

While Democrats Chris Koster and Jason Kander got 14-15,000 more votes in JeffCo than Hillary Clinton did, it was not enough to overcome their GOP opponents. In every case, the GOP candidate got a higher vote percentage in JeffCo than he did Missouri-wide. Instead of a bellwether or a swing county, JeffCo is becoming an important vote source for Republican candidates in Missouri.

Vote percentages for GOP candidates in the countywide races ranged from 55-62%, not including the judicial race for division 1, which Republican Wes Yates won with only 52% of the vote. So with the possible exception of Yates, I’d say that Trump’s coattails weren’t needed to facilitate the JeffCo GOP sweep of 2016.

Trump’s big numbers here can only mean he won some Democrat votes. Considering that the average vote count among Republicans listed on all county ballots was about 58,000, compared to Trump’s almost 69,000, that means that about 10,000 county Dems voted for him. The way he won over so many Democratic voters (or Hillary scared them away) in our blue-collar county is probably indicative of how he won the presidential election.

In my next post, I will take a look at the weakened state of Big Labor in our county.

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  1. JeffCo Judge Arrested for DWI and Assault – Wegge to Not Recuse? | Jefferson County Penknife - November 30, 2016

    […] was defeated earlier this month in his bid for re-election as the Democratic candidate against a GOP wave, and thus only has about a month left in his term, was arrested on the scene for misdemeanor […]

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